"Today is the only day in life
When we all carry our laziness in a crowd.
This first degree of freedom so far,
But you need to take the bull by the horns. "
This article was conceived as an attempt to system analysis, slightly beyond the narrow confines of the ceremonial "trends of Internet marketing." Applying the research of large brands (Naomi Klein) and the prekariat (Guy Standing) to the modern stage of retail development, the author came to disappointing conclusions. Industry-specific fortune-telling about the future of the Internet is pointless. Online trading has affected the interests of large retail chains, and now they are preparing to rebuild the Internet for themselves. Why?
- Technological lag of retail chains
- Drones instead of storekeepers
- Self-service and robots instead of sellers
- Omnichannel against retail space and pre-order trading
- Store dematerialization
- Technology 1: Pickup from a robotic warehouse for the poor
- Technology 2: postamata at the entrances for the economy class
- Technology 3: drones for homeowners
- Organizational and resource scheme: from Uber to MLM
- Game universes cheaper and more attractive shopping and entertainment centers
- Shopping inside the Matrix
- Game behavior is real power
- How much does game development cost?
- Gamification gains recognition
- Virtual universes for any audience
- Obvious shopping gamification traps
- Stripping direct competitors
- Volley first: legislative pressure
- Second volley: squeezing prices
- Media holdings against indirect competition
- How the arrival of retail will change the Internet
- Scenario 1: Replacing Small Customers
- Scenario 2: MLM Sales Outsourcing
- Scenario 3: mods on game interfaces
- Appendix 1: The role of a copywriter in game development
- Appendix 2: game screenwriter toolkit
- Sites, blogs, publication cycles
The crisis of overproduction of supermarkets
In Europe, there are 21 hypermarkets for every million inhabitants. The British multinational network Tesco spends 18 billion dollars on new stores, receiving from them only 1 billion additional turnover. At this rate, the payback point will be reached in 100 years. Opening new points is unprofitable.
In the US, the process went even further. In the suburbs of 4648 (70%) of American cities, Walmart hypermarkets are piled up. They are adjacent competitors: Kroger - 2500, Sears - 1672, and Target - 1792 discounter.
The boundless Russian expanses are almost exhausted. According to analysts Renaissance Capital, there are 632 hypermarkets in Russia, and there are only 353 places left. Because our average population density is 20 times lower than in Europe. 9 vs. 176 people per square kilometer. Network shops are in each village. For example, the network "Magnet" is present in 8,200 locations with up to 500,000 people. And in the capitals in the walking distance of each metro station there are 3-4 hypermarkets.
In the meantime, there are no more buyers. The birth rate is declining, but more and more people live on a meager pension. We have 5 people in our family: three in 40, the oldest is soon 80 and the one and only 20-year-old.
Can retailers cope with stagnation? No, investors will not allow it. When in 2015, WalMart announced a decrease in stock returns, the network's market value in 20 minutes fell by $ 19.8 billion. And in February 2017, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway company sold 11.5 million Wal-Mart shares worth $ 900 million. Network number 1 was left without the largest investor, and retailers around the world realized that it smells like kerosene.
And in the spring of 2017, the situation rolled downhill. 420 closed their outlets of the fashion network Bebe and The Limited. 3500 Macy's, Sears, Kmart stores are preparing for closure. Already 14% of America's largest retailers moved to the bottom of the credit rating. In the US, the "shopping center crisis" is growing, 30% of them may be closed soon. According to the rating agency Moody's, the situation of retail in the United States is 3 times worse than during the Great Depression.
The retail industry is brewing "revolution from above" (revolution from above): the industry cannot develop in the same direction, and the top management of the leading companies will have to undertake major reforms in order to save revenues and power.
Technological lag of retail chains
Retail was a pioneer in automation. The first vending machines appeared in the VII century, now in the world there are more than 20 million. However, a relatively low proportion of costs led to a lag in trade compared with industrial production. Although robotization of the industry began in the 60s of the XX century, by 2016, 1.6 robots were already working in world production. Industrial robots assemble cars and computers, process metal and wood, draw and store. They learn, recognize the situation and make their own decisions. And in the network of trade is still a high proportion of manual labor, computerization has affected only cash transactions, accounting and inventory accounting.
The EuroShop 2017 exhibition, which was held on March 5-9 in Dusseldorf, showed a picture of the chaotic supply in response to sluggish demand. Self-propelled trolley Wanzi confuses and scares buyers. The Philips Lighting LED positioning system simplifies navigation with a tablet, but reduces the proportion of impulse purchases. Electronic price tags, cold steam, dynamic lighting of products surprise and amuse, but do not push to purchase. The novelty is undoubted, the use is not obvious.Meanwhile, the scale of the problems that have accumulated in retail requires complex measures to drastically reduce costs. Robotisation can provide significant savings in the wage fund.
Drones instead of storekeepers
In Japanese and American warehouses Amazon, automated trolleys deliver cargo from shelving to loading sites. They work 4 times faster than people, take up half the space, reduce operating expenses by 20%. Russia is not far behind: at the end of 2016, robotic warehouses for 50,000 cubic meters of products and 28 thousand euro pallets, respectively, were opened in the Istrinsky district and Tver. Savings on wages up to 400%.
“Trading networks, mail are the first candidates for robotization, in this segment there is the highest profitability of introducing robot systems. There are two scenarios. First: we sit and do nothing, while the Americans and the Chinese create global robotization companies in the relevant industries. in the wake of our complete degradation, they come to us and supply turnkey systems for the robotization of trade, transport, and logistics. All the margin remains with them, we have a strong collapse of the labor market and a drop in household incomes. We are starting to create such systems. There will be a drop in household incomes in this case, but at least the margin will remain in the country. "
Evgeny Kuznetsov, Chairman of the Board, Russian Venture Company
Self-service and robots instead of sellers
Cash self-service terminals (Self-Checkout, SCO) are widespread: 152 distribution networks, 105,000 operating devices in 22 countries. Buyers scan barcodes, weigh vegetables and bulk products, pay in cash or by credit card. Instead of 1 cash register with a live cashier, there are 6 SCO terminals.
In Germany, Self-Checkout devices are equipped with 50 Real / Extra hypermarkets that are part of the METRO group. In Britain, self-service cash desks are installed in Tesco supermarkets, and serve 13% of purchases. Wal-mart is leading in the US, having installed 10,000 self-service cash desks in 1,200 stores as early as 2013. In Russia, SCO is implemented in the networks of "Crossroads", "Victoria", "Auchan", "Magnit". About 25% of customer traffic passes through them.
Meanwhile, in March, in the Swedish town of Viken (Viken), Country Store 2.0 is working, a completely deserted 24-hour supermarket. The owner of the supermarket is a local programmer Robert Iliason. He developed a mobile phone application for the buyer, which serves as a pass to the store, scans goods and is calculated with the bank for purchases. Amazon tests on deserted employees the deserted shopping mall Amazon Go. And in Moscow, on the site of the defeated pavilions, the automatic kiosks “All by myself” are installed.
It's all nice, but not enough. For example, in the structure of expenses of the X5 Retail Group retail chain (quarterly report for 2016), staff costs amount to 7.2% of revenue. And the total cost of stores - 7.6% (rent, utilities, other expenses). If tomorrow every single vendor, storekeeper and loader of the X5 Retail Group will be replaced by robots, the company will still have to spend 76 billion rubles a year on the retail space.
Maybe give up on outlets at all and move the whole trade online?
Omnichannel against retail space and pre-order trading
Retail speakers interpret omni-channel as a marketing practice that integrates online and offline sales channels for the unification of prices, range and service, regardless of where they are addressed. However, the main value of omnicanality is that it provides total transparency and accounting.
Traditional retail operates with offline customer flows, moving to individual sales only at the checkout. Omnichannelness fundamentally changes the business processes of retail chains, making attraction, pre-sale and after-sales training completely personal. The simultaneous use of streaming and personal marketing is impractical, so as sales increase and deepen the omni-channel sales will decrease. If it is possible to sell through digital channels more and without space-time restrictions, then why keep the retail space?
The inertia of real estate is hard. Write-off of investments is a huge responsibility, and it is scary to accept it. But multichannel end-to-end analytics with numbers will prove the advantages of sales channels that are not burdened with retail space. Online cannibalization will become inevitable, and retailers will do it themselves.
“For an identified customer, LTC and LTV become transparent. The economic efficiency of marketing offers to such customers is much higher than the“ carpet bombing ”of unidentified customers with discounts, special offers and advertising. related to inventory. "
Nikita Kocherzhenko, Oracle Retail Sales Director
Courier delivery schemes do not scale well from online stores to federal networks. The normal productivity of a walking courier is 15 orders per day (25-30 if the courier is with a car). And the average supermarket cash desk serves 60 customers per hour, 480 per day. One ticket office is equal to 16 "horse" or 32 walking couriers. For example, the network "Crossroads" for 2015 realized 294 million purchases. That's almost 805,000 per day. Such a flow of orders would require 27,000 couriers with a car, or 54,000 on foot. For the delivery of purchases only one network "Crossroads" will require the population of a small city.
While X5 Retail Group is testing a delivery system for 2000 employees, the lack of personnel is not noticeable. It will begin to manifest itself in the second quarter of 2017, when the “Crossroads” will have to provide delivery of 142,627 residents of the South-Western Administrative Okrug. And it will become a problem when scaling to the whole of Moscow and beyond.
It turns out that you can not do without infrastructure at all. Instead, hypermarkets will need new distribution networks. It is logical to differentiate the delivery schemes for segments with different income levels. Three technological and one organizational model are obvious.
Technology 1: Pickup from a robotic warehouse for the poor
All components of this solution are widely used. The number of robotic warehouses is increasing, in one Amazon there are 20. There are distributed self-service checkout terminals and vending machines. ATMs for receiving payments are hardly in every village. It remains to integrate everything together, fasten a remote pre-order and get a budget scheme for those who have little money and a lot of leisure. Instead of 7685 Moscow supermarkets, there will be 125 warehouses, one per district.
The disadvantage of this solution is the queue. But needy for them is no stranger. Protection of order will also provide robots: Chinese AnBot, the Russian "Tral Patrol", the American RAMSEE.
It is obvious that for servicing the needs of the poorest part of the population, self-pickup from robotic warehouses is the most economical.
Technology 2: postamata at the entrances for the economy class
How did providers solve the last mile problem? Installing hubs in attics. An analogy will be the points of purchase in the entrances. In the pedestrian area of the city’s supermarket, there are 8-10 houses with 4-6 entrances. To cover this area, it is enough to install 60 postamats. There is already a network of Teleport home postamats in St. Petersburg. In addition to parcels from online stores, Teleport delivers products from the Lenta network.
Let us examine the obvious problems of implementation. Vandalism and theft will help eradicate management companies, concierges from the residents, video recording and alarm. The apparent lack of space, postamats of competing networks can be spread over the floors. A shortage of cells is unlikely. If there are 40 apartments in the stairwell, and 96 cells in the post office, 2 cells per apartment and 16 in the reserve are obtained.The cost of installation, maintenance, security postamat increase the purchase price. Therefore, this delivery model is implemented in luxury housing.
Technology 3: drones for homeowners
The massive influx of unmanned couriers do not have to wait. Even the new rules of the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) of 2016 prohibit commercial drone from flying over peopleat night and at a speed of more than 100 miles per hour. Not surprisingly, Wal-mart and Amazon’s Homeric plans remain unfulfilled. The leader of American retail for the second year is waiting for permission from the FAA. But Amazon has so far made only 1 unmanned delivery of a Fire TV set top box and a popcorn package. And he begins to look toward the robots cars.
American bureaucrats are easy to understand. The average Wal-mart store is visited by 21,000 customers per week, 3000 per day. Dreadful picture: 3000 autonomous robots fly over each city. 14 million over all of America. Daily.
What happens? For example, non-flying weather? Low-cost drones are not recommended to run at temperatures below -50. And with a strong wind, they do not obey the control and lose the signal. Or where will the drones on the 10th floor without a balcony sit? Will drones knock on windows, swoop on balconies?
And who and how will be responsible for vandalism? People with jokes and jokes are discussing how best to shoot down drones. Mass ideas: from arrows and lasers to radio-controlled aircraft. Air defense systems are already on sale. There are even mobile apps jamming drones at the touch of a button.
Flying couriers can work without hindrance only in the suburbs and rural areas. In other words, in developed countries, delivery by drones will be a premium service for owners of mansions and estates. And in developing will begin to replace traditional mail. So drones of the Chinese online store JD.com deliver parcels to post offices in rural areas. But in Russia this will not work, the drones will fly straight to the nonferrous metal.
Organizational and resource scheme: from Uber to MLM
The resource of a part-time population seems inexhaustible. In Russia, outside the labor market 61% of residents. Below the poverty line in Europe is 23.7%. In the US, 14%. And this is according to official statistics and excluding migrants. Not surprisingly, the auto hiring intermediary services are growing like mushrooms after rain.
The cloning of the Uber model has become a trend and a profitable business that many Western and Russian companies are engaged in. Meanwhile, the take-over has transferred the competitive system with all its flaws to the service and hiring sphere. And on cheap contracts of “fractional employment” these shortcomings immediately became massive and glaring. Pure price competition naturally led to unpaid reworking of performers. A one-dimensional system of ratings and reviews hinder the formation of reputations, provoking impaired selection by George Akerlof.
As a result, performers begin to dictate terms to customers and intermediaries. Couriers do not take applications from distant areas of the city. Taxi drivers do not go to the holiday villages. Drivers are suing Uber, demanding to recognize them as full-time employees. And the Northern District of Illinois Federal District Court goes to meet them, ordering Uber to pay $ 84 million in overtime and maintenance fees.
For the cheapness of "fractionally employed" personnel have to pay a low level of qualification, lack of discipline and loyalty. Random couriers lose, damage, steal goods. To recover damages from them can not no police. Peshkariki, Deliverer, Bringo have already encountered this. A Moscow Instamart, completely abandoned the assured delivery of METRO products. The service takes couriers to the state and arranges 14-day training for them.
Ubilization is based on an intermediary model, in which risks and organizational costs are passed on to contractors and customers. Построить стабильно работающую сеть сбыта таким образом нельзя Нужна самоорганизующаяся система отбора, оценки, контроля и мотивации. Она есть и готова к использованию.
MLM как аутсорсинг продаж
В мире около 900 компаний многоуровневого маркетинга, из них 150 в России. Oriflame, Avon и "Фаберлик" продают косметику, "Гербалайф" - добавки для похудения, Kirby - пылесосы. Insurance companies along with linear agent networks use multi-level. For the first 3 quarters of 2016, the volume of direct sales in Russia amounted to 87 billion rubles. These transactions went through the hands of 3.15 million private distributors.
All MLM members act at their own peril and risk as entrepreneurs. They buy goods for their money, advertise, organize delivery. Downline give part of the profits of the higher "sponsors." therefore income level in multi-level marketing is determined by personal suggestion abilities. Old "sponsors" are building networks of 15-25 levels, including up to 100,000 participants. If you can agitate "distributors" - you will earn good money at their expense.
MLM on the Internet is booming. Multi-level affiliate programs are widespread. They are even embedded in the popular CMS: the module of the online store "1C-Bitrix", plug-in scripts for Joomla and OpenCart. The most prolific Internet MLM breeds at the intersection of infobusiness and affiliate programs. Multi-level marketing has flooded social networks, organic delivery and even news sections of search engines. Outstanding achievements, the envy of any marketer.
Multilevel marketing since its introduction in 1945 claims to be the heir to the retail empire. As long as sales of retail chains were growing, they could ignore MLM's brazen claims. But in times of crisis, the business model of network sales seems to be a wealth of advantages.
Do not need the cost of retail space. The wage fund is reset. Corporate KPIs the further, the more reminiscent are the sophisticated MLM "marketing plans" (profit sharing algorithms between network participants). Personnel MLM methods are tested and implemented by HR services (team building, psychological training, mentoring, part-time work, interns). Finally, there is an extensive personnel reserve of experienced organizers.
“Sales is a person who combines the qualities of a client flow generator and a client manager. A lot of sales formed and exited MLM. Since in 93-98. there were no companies that were willing to work with sales at their rates, it was much more profitable to trade any kind of online crap — from books to spirits. Conscience has no sales. It was replaced by a benefit. The ability to benefit at the slightest opportunity distinguishes good sales. "
Dmitry Shakhov, general director of the studio "Remarque"
MLM financial schemes are already practiced by some delivery services. For example, the service "Deliver" from 2015 offers delivery with a buyout. Couriers for their money buy orders from stores, and after delivery reimburse expenses with money received from customers.
In a word for outsourcing large retail sales, the MLM network looks perfect. There are retailers who do not want to spend money on postamats and drones, and prefer to shift the costs and risks to subcontractors. It is possible that cunning sales will eventually throw employers out of business. But this is when there will be!
At the level of technology, the scheme looks easy to pain. The accounting system of the retailer (SAP Hybris, Microsoft Dynamics AX, "1C-Rarus: Shopping Complex") is linked with 1,2 ... N back-offices of MLM networks ("MLM-PRO", Flawless MLM, OKsoft). These counterparties are assigned the status of wholesale buyers, with product discounts and advertising support.
Instead of a full-time overloaded sales department, thousands of hungry and insane enthusiasts will hunt the buyer. On the site through the "cloud consultants". In social networks through personal messages and personal pages. In mobile messengers. Dispatcher sponsors will control their “structures” through off-site work platforms such as Planado or Mobifors. And ordinary "distributors" will arm themselves with chat-bots "Bitrix24" and neural networks OneBox Next. Then certainly no one leaves offended without a purchase.
Moreover, attracting new visitors to the “trade-game universes” MLM distributors can be very successful in the I-th stage of the funnel. Agree, much easier to lure into the game than vparivat supplements and vacuum cleaners. But read about it below.
Obviously, you will need to quickly teach offline customers to online orders. The matter is simple: negotiate with Internet providers and add shopping apps to the firmware of routers. A mobile users to distribute on the stock budget phones with pre-installed applications (for example, "Beeline C201 Black" with 3G costs 579 rubles in retail).
Game universes cheaper and more attractive shopping and entertainment centers
Retailers seek to turn shoppers into evangelicals, following the example of the Disney Store and Virgin supermarkets, embodying Nike's “inspired trade” ideology. As Nike President Thomas Clark said, the store should help sellers "build a romantic relationship between their products and the buyer." In practice, this ideology has generated shopping and entertainment centers like hybrids of amusement parks and supermarkets. For example, in the largest Moscow center Aviapark, in addition to 500 stores, there are 17 cinema halls, a children's theme park, 80 restaurants, a mirror labyrinth and an aquarium 23 meters high. Hypermarkets Auchan, Lenta, Metro Cash & Carry follow the same concept, placing in the cafe, gaming areas. Obviously, in the material world, networks of economy class (Magnit, Pyaterochka, Kopeyka) cannot afford such investments.
By transferring online sales, retailers will strive to maintain branding involvement, "romantic relationships with customers." At first glance, this is a difficult task. The interfaces of modern online stores of the Amazon family are based on the model of customer interaction with the vending machine. They minimize the actions of buyers and develop in the direction of simplification. The better the online store, the poorer the shopping experience. The limit of such development is the unification of trading platforms to indistinguishability and the full rationalization of consumer behavior. Meanwhile, customer rationality directly harms sales..
The series of global crises, which began in 2008, has already caused a massive rationalization of purchases by the poor. Impulse purchases are eliminated, optional reductions. Necessary purchases are made in cheap segments, postponed until sales, are made after careful budget planning and a comparative analysis of alternatives. Moreover, the Internet has given buyers a lot of rationalization tools: Yandex.Market and Google.Shopping, shopping aggregators, couponers, rental services, joint purchases, personal finance accounting. And the main enemy of sales is showrooming applications that are looking for products from photographs of barcodes, labels, and covers. For example, Google Goggles.
So, vending machine interfaces are unable to create and support emotional attachment of buyers. Moreover. The media model (magazine, TV channel) imposed on business by search engines is also no good. Emotional attachment in this model arises easily if This product has a high retention rate. (retention rate) by itself. Like Disney films, Virgin music, Children's World toys. The books of the storytelling apologist Dmitry Sokolov-Mitrich and the journals of the info-book Maksim Ilyakhov, finally.
If the product does not please, but simply closes the need, then attachment does not arise at all. Suppose sausage is happy hungry, vodka is hungover, but what kind of life do you need to go to like laundry detergent? Regularity doesn't help either. You can stick to the stampede in the subway and the queues at the post, but they do not hate them anymore. Provisions will not fix even gobolobyty texts. The mass buyer will simply ignore them, as Elena Torshina fairly noted.
Shopping inside the Matrix
Sellers of food, household chemicals, building materials and other "boring matters" will need online interfaces that generate a retention rate, create attachment. To do this, they must evoke emotions: kindle excitement, intrigue, stimulate ambition, amaze, entertain, create an outlet for aggression and reward for achieving various and unpredictable achievements.
“Most people, by using the term customer experience, mean creating pleasant, easy and convenient interactions. This is the exact opposite of what a truly unique experience really is. Experience should not only be pleasant, but memorable; not necessarily easy, but it should be personal. And it should definitely not be convenient, since it means less time spent with the company. Customers should want to spend more time with you. "
Joe Pine, co-founder of Strategic Horizons, author of The Experience Economy.
These requirements are satisfied by computer games. Any shopping is a game with a negative amount. Strength and money is becoming less as shopping. As soon as the hands come off or the wallet becomes empty, the buyer leaves the store. Of all the types of interfaces, only games support the user's strengths, increasing his emotional background.
According to the algorithm for solving inventive problems of Heinrich Altshuller, the crisis of the development of the system is overcome by increasing the degree of ideality. therefore The next step in the development of a physical shopping and entertainment center is a virtual Disneyland gaming space with organically built points of sale.
A colleague, Pavel Molyanov, in a remarkable article “What marketers can learn from game developers,” convincingly demonstrated the increasing user involvement in the introduction of game elements. However, the examples cited by Paul not without reason relate exclusively to the genres of quest and simulation. Shooters, strategies, multiplayer role-playing games and arcades are not compatible with vending machines and media, but they are leading in the ratings (for example, "The Witcher" - role-playing game, DOOM and Black Mesa - shooters, World of Tanks - multiplayer arcade simulator). Game universes cannot be made part of an online store. But the players know how easy it is to shop inside the game universe. Which of us did not buy boosts (boosts, accelerations)? Did not pump levels? Did not give friends paid gifts? Didn't change your cash money for game currency?
This is not always a penny. The Revenant spacecraft from EVE ONLINE was bought for $ 9,000, the Golden Baby Roshan courier from Dot 2 for $ 13,000, the Echo of Rage hammer from Diablo III for $ 14,000.
Game behavior is real power
The need for gaming reality is great. According to research firm Newzoo, there are approximately 1.8 billion gamers in the world (24% of the population). The total number of Russian gamers as of October 2016 is 72 million people (48% of the population). According to the Washington Post, almost 7 million Americans do not get a job, preferring to play all day.
Millions of players take part in contests of gamers. According to SuperDataResearch, there are a total of 134 million cybersportsmen in the world, and 2 million in Russia. Kiberigry recognized as an Olympic sport, they are broadcast on television, for example, on the channel "Match TV". Teams of cybersportsmen enter into contracts with sports clubs and large advertisers (Tornado Energy and the HellRaisers team at World of Tanks).
By the way, already 3 banks have issued credit cards for gamers. In 2012, Promsvyazbank issued Angry Cards. In 2014, Tinkoff Bank issued the All Games card. In 2016 - 3 Alfa Bank cards: World of Tanks, World of Warships and World of Tanks Blitz.
How much does game development cost?
The gaming developer toolkit is easily accessible and inexpensive. There are free engines with development control (coding). For example, Phaser, CryEngine, Turbulenz, Amazon Lumberyar, Libgdx. There are also free engines - constructors (without writing code): Construct 2, Corona SDK, GameSalad. There is a Surprise Me service for creating quests. Fees for paid platforms are quite liberal. Unity - from $ 35 per month, Unreal Engine 4 - 5% deductions from income above $ 3000.
The development of "AAA" class games has been going on for years and absorbs tens of millions. Half-Life 2 - 40 million dollars, Halo 2 - about 20 million, World of WarCraft - 200 million, Call of Duty 2 - 14.5 million, Quake 4 - 15 million, Crysis - 17 million. Russian MMORPG Allods Online - 12 million dollars.
But on the other hand, simple games with the use of designers and ready-made solutions can be created within days and even hours. And budgets are appropriate.Indie (individual) developer of the mobile game City 2048 spent on the development and promotion of about 20,000 rubles. The team of creators of the browser game "Star Wars" has spent on the development of almost 500,000 rubles.
And the salaries of game developers are quite average. In 2016, the salary ceiling of the mobile developer in Moscow was 150,000 rubles, and the software engineer of the game studio - 135,000 rubles.Game developers have a key advantage over website developers in general and online stores in particular. The games are focused on the B2C market and individual players. While web developers aimed at the B2B market danced around the decision makers and won tenders, game dev programmers excelled in meeting the needs of end users. In which they succeeded.
Gamification gains recognition
Being afraid of losing customers, companies mostly test game mechanics on employees. The results of the research of the employment agency "Empire of Personnel" show: 81% of managers believe that the game increases involvement. At the same time, 19% are confident that gamification dulls the responsibility, distracts from the main tasks and relaxes.
Office plankton is not good to relax. And buyers can and should be. In 2011, the mobile operator MTS conducted the Red Quest, a geolocation arcade based on the Transformers universe. Over 1 million participants and 20% increase in sales of the tariff. In 2013, the agency Rare Marka launched the MINIMANIA arcade game to launch the MINI Paceman car. 6500 game downloads. In 2015, Affect organized a mobile quest with augmented reality “Get the hero to school” in the “Children's World” for the LEGO company. The day the quest passed 200 children. In 2015 and 2016, Tinkoff Bank organized shopping Tinkoff Quests of 7 tasks with a cash prize fund. In 2015, 15,000 bank customers took part in the game, 444 completed the quest successfully. Turnover on the cards increased by 40%. And in 2016, Burger King awarded customers of “tankers” premium accounts, game gold and IS-6 tanks in World of Tanks.
Virtual universes for any audience
By building the game world, scenarios and characters under the stereotypes of players, you can achieve emotional affection from even the most complex audience. And it is not necessary to go far: it is enough to study what causes strong feelings and coincides with the desires of the audience right now.
Let's start with schoolchildren. According to a study by Sberbank and the Validata agency, the Russian "generation Z" is afraid of gray life without vivid impressions, passionately craves public recognition, considers pleasure from short-term joys the main thing in life. At the same time, they highly value personal welfare, but do not want to strain at work. This makes young people the ideal consumers of life substitutes, games with virtual and augmented reality (VR and AR). VR glasses can be bought even with pocket money, prices start at $ 20, and there are cheaper. For example, cardboard Google Cardboard. Now VR is gaining a children's audience in gaming clubs and an adult in real estate exhibitions.
Employees of the Y and Z generations reject corporate values. The obsolete slogans of HR-politrukov are considered by the younger generation to be a scam. Using the examples of fathers, they see how career growth rewards entrepreneurs. The life of grandfathers proves to them what a decent old age provides the state. And peers now and then complain in social networks, as they are punished with a ruble for lack of experience. Why then bother, if the terms of deception?
“There are people who clearly come at 10 and leave at 7 every day. They won’t achieve anything in life. These are Akaki Akakievichs. If every person leaves exactly at 19:00, then I think you need to part with that person. equal to work. He goes only for money. "
Such “motivating” rhetoric somehow acts on the Soviet generation, MLM distributors and people on the edge of poverty. But generations Y and Z are not ready to work where they are sacked for refusing refusals. They want to enjoy life right now, and not to lamb away at the evil uncle.
Ideally, the best motivator is hunger. But, unfortunately, employers, it is impossible to simultaneously pay at the level of survival and maintain customer demand. We have to train young people in the charms of self-sacrificing work and career growth with the help of corporate games. For example, the OBI building supermarket chain in 2015 launched the Retail Manager business strategy for employees. And 18,000 Euroset vendors are pumping their superheroes in the game "Best $ eller", exchanging the results of daily sales for game points.
Mass stereotype depicts pensioner as being aggressively conservative, recognizing only TV from innovations. Country cottages, meaningless trips on transport and gatherings on the benches are the classes of these imaginary characters. Surprise: it was a long time and not true.
In Russia, 1 million pensioners are added annually. That is, since the beginning of computerization in the 90s, 27 million people retired. Poverty, and not senility at all, prevents pensioners from mastering a computer. Самый дешевый ноутбук стоит 15000 рублей, это 1 средняя месячная пенсия, или 3 минимальных.
Главный враг пенсионеров - скука. При возможности они с удовольствием играют в головоломки ("Что за слово?") и викторины ("Сто к одному"). Раскладывают пасьянсы и гоняют шарики. Массовым порядком сидят в фермерских аркадах, таких как "Веселая ферма" или "Счастливый фермер".
Хотя конечно, глупо по примеру Eлeны Maлышeвой пытаться подсадить пенсионеров на шутеры. The notorious Counter-Strike will only have to retired paratroopers, the other pensioners have a different reaction.
To turn retirees into active gamers, it’s enough to give them massive cheap and convenient access to games. For example, through the firmware set-top boxes and mobile phones.
Criminalized youth (clear boys) from troubled families and industrial outskirts profess the values of the world of thieves and declare life according to prison "concepts". Above all, they put a partnership in street gangs, hunted by thefts and petty robbery, asserting themselves in fights, addicted to hand-to-hand combat. They never admit that they are wrong, they are extremely conservative in their preferences, they think specifically and lack imagination. Clear boys flaunt ignorance, pursue manifestations of education and culture as signs of weakness. The image of criminal youth (Gopnik) is strongly mythologized. They are played up by the Liberal Democratic Party, dozens of films about them (“Guys”, “Gop-stop”) were made, their musical tastes are served by the groups “Gopota”, Gopnik, “Black GUN Dons”, a.b.i.b.a.s, “OPG”, “Mad Dogs”.
By virtue of the utmost concreteness of the worldview, criminal youth loves games that reproduce their life in the media mirror. For example, gangster multiplayer game Criminal Russia. Street leisure clear boys easy to improve team games with augmented realitybut it is better not to do it. Because such progress will all come out sideways. But you can channel the aggression in the fighting arcades, gradually introducing socially acceptable patterns of consumption. For example, to accustom to expensive clothes. Buy the same Negro "boys" Nike Air Max sneakers for $ 95.
Migrant Assimilation it seems extremely challenging. The fact is that in Russia and in the world there are no strong public institutions directly interested in the adaptation of migrant workers. Foreign workers are at the crossroads of the interests of large employers (in particular, developers) and national diasporas. The first is economically advantageous disunity and powerlessness of migrants, the second are interested in the growth of the number and influence of their isolated communities.
Unadapted migrants are worthless consumers. They live in bunk houses for 20 people, feed on noodles and send all their earnings home to their families. In 2016, 33 billion dollars flowed out of Russia.
As a factor of instability, the isolation of migrants affects the interests of the state, and if there is political will, it is fully capable of solving this problem. History has more than two dozen examples of successful ethnic assimilation. The Arabization of the Umayyad Caliphate in the 7th century dissolved Arameans, Copts, and Phoenicians. In the 15th century, the Spanish Kingdom of Castile and Aragon distilled the population of Canaria, Latin America, and the Philippines. The people of the United States adapted 24 million migrants from 1880 to 1920.
Non-financial assimilation tools are: name change, transition to the title language of a territory, non-compact residence, intermarriage. So mass The assimilation of migrants can be facilitated by arcade cases (the board game “Russia is a land of opportunity”), network games, as well as games for dating and marriage. Advanced diasporas consider the last danger serious. For example, the Tatar community supports dozens of dating sites among Tatar youth.
In general, gamification of dysfunctional social groups may seem so attractive that scholarships, pensions and bonuses will be given only to active gamers. In the argument that it is better to let the steam in front of the screen, than wander the streets and disgrace disrupt.
Obvious shopping gamification traps
The potential market for gamification of retail is very narrow. There are 154 trading networks in the world, 84 of them in Russia. Failure of even single projects can distort the development trajectory. Therefore, it is better to talk about future problems in advance.
Universalization. Big brands prefer to retrain local audiences instead of adapting the brand to the specifics of the market. McDonald's restaurants and OBI stores in all countries look the same. By analogy, retailers will be tempted to use a single gaming interface for all buyers, and not to spend money on developing games that are adapted to the segments. This will lead to the loss of audiences for whom the game is not suitable. Special cases of universalization will be the formal branding of untwisted game engines with company logos, colors, fonts, as well as mechanical copying into the game reality of physical stores (shooter in Pyaterochka, an arcade game in Magnet). Such games will cause only short and superficial interest and will soon be abandoned.
Formal, mechanical filling of the game with product offersnot consistent with the logic of the game. It will turn out the same as with banners and pop-up windows on sites. Clumsy annoyance will turn many players away, while those who remain will develop “banner blindness.”
Combination with gambling business (online gambling, casino). Retailers may be tempted to, according to the Vulcan example, earn extra money on the excitement. It is impossible to do this in the forehead. Since 2007, online casinos in Russia are prohibited. The Russian company can not accept bets and pay winnings via the Internet. On the other hand, no one prohibits admitting to the game for bonus points and playing valuable prizes. I bought, say, a bar of chocolate, and roll my roulette with prizes: Renault Logan, Henessy Swap, MacBook Pro and 33 rolls of toilet paper.
Voluntaristic game development management. There are definitely no experienced game producers among the management of retail chains. Taste and manual control slow down the development to infinity. And the product, crushed after all approvals, is guaranteed to be doomed to failure. Game development teams need a blank check.
Forced. The game interface of the trading platform must be duplicated by a non-gaming online store. Because if the site will force the buyer to play, he will prefer not to use it at all. At first, gaming shopping will be especially popular with children and men. As you know, they love games more, and they hate shopping.
Opposition from employerswho think that games distract from work. It is easily overcome if, following the example of "Best $ eller" of Euroset, the practice of awarding gaming currency and bonuses will spread.
Optimization of development budgets. Modest budgets and episodic success of indie games can inspire the illusion of simplicity and cheap gamedev, set up network managers for success with "little blood". The desire to reduce costs is indestructible, and therefore in every new undertaking a tale about the priest and his inexpensive worker Balde is played out. In July 2017, those who decided to save money when switching to online cash registers will start to go bankrupt. Maybe this collision of someone in the mind.
In fact, a partner in transferring retail to game interfaces should have many years of experience in automating trade, creating online stores and developing games. In Russia, these requirements are met by the 1C holding, which includes the developers and publishers of the 1C-SoftKlab and Buka Entertainment games, as well as the Mail.Ru Group with the Mail.Ru Goods and Mail.Ru Games divisions.
More applicants? Yes, studios with games and online stores in the portfolio. For example, digital agency "AlterEGO" or studio S Media Link.
The transition to a "virtual Disneyland" is not required to be an emergency. It can be performed gradually, increasing the network of cross-marketing links. For example, now shops give discounts to gamers. Then the playgrounds will begin to award promotional codes for goods. Then in the interfaces of online stores will appear "game rooms" for "earning" large discounts and small accessories. And physical and virtual goods will start selling in sets. For example, checks for sausage and vodka in a supermarket can be drunk and eaten in "S.T.A.L.K.E.R: Call of Pripyat." When the habit of mixing the game with shopping becomes ubiquitous, the shopping and entertainment universes of “AAA +” class will be developed, dragging the players along for years.
The smooth progress of the “revolution from above” will be ensured by agreements between industry associations. The interests of retail in negotiations in Russia can be represented by the Association of Internet Trading Companies (ACIT) and the Association of Retail Companies (AKORT), the interests of game developers are the Expert Council of the gaming industry (ESIA) and the Association of Mobile Application Developers of Russia (ARMPR).
The perspectives drawn above should have been quite encouraging in the consumer aspect of the reader’s personality. He already blinks sweetly, imagining an interesting and fun game shopping, the final oblivion of the queues, appealing sellers and polite couriers from all sides. Glad? And it will be with you, give way to the labor aspect of personality. Let him know what a wonderful new world will be paid for.
Stripping direct competitors
Trading networks do not tolerate competitors in their niches and fight with them until the complete destruction of the weak. So for the sake of shopping centers were closed 26 of the 27 agricultural markets in Moscow. So WalMart destroyed small retail in America, covering the whole country with a 5,000 network of low-priced megastores. That is why there are almost 5 times fewer retail chains in the United States than in Russia, 18 versus 85.
"Now the struggle will not be for attracting a new audience from the Internet, but for retaining its customers and receiving" foreign "customers."
Pavel Aleshin, former head of Yandex.Market
Transferring activity from offline to online, from physical territories to informational, trading networks will capture the Internet and bring its own rules there. The methods have been worked out, there is enough money, artillery preparation has begun.
Volley first: legislative pressure
In 2016, large Russian retail lobbied for a number of laws affecting online trading. First of all amendments to FZ-54, which entered into force on February 1, 2017. Now all traders are required to apply approved online cash registers, which coordinate the check with the operator of fiscal data via the Internet. Moreover, the check must be issued within 5 minutes from the date of payment. And if not? Then the fine: from 10,000 rubles to 50% of the purchase price from a director or individual entrepreneur, from 30,000 rubles to 100% of the purchase price from an online store as a legal entity. This is the first time, and the second will be the disqualification of an official for 2 years and the suspension of the enterprise for 3 months.
The new law has created problems for everyone, but online shopping in particular. First, online cash registers cannot print more than 2 checks per second, while online stores cannot queue customers, they will run. So you have to buy several cash registers and parallelize them. Secondly, couriers will have to knock out a check immediately after receiving payment. This means that either couriers carry mobile cash desks with them, or do not accept payment at all. Thirdly, the law requires the mobile cash desk to be registered at the address of the point of sale or on the number of the vehicle for exit trade. That is, the foot courier delivery becomes semi-legal.
And by the deadline: out of 2.8 million owners of cash registers, at the beginning of March 2017, only 93,000 transferred to new cash registers. This is 3.3%. It is doubtful that the remaining 96% (2,707,000 companies) will keep within the remaining 4 months!
“Federal Law No. 54 comes into force partially from February 1, 2017 and in full force from July 1. For this segment, online stores should solve a problem for which there is no“ right answer ”. New requirements force online stores to create“ farms "from physical cash offices. To produce, register and send checks in those transactions where previously this was not necessary."
Sergey Ryzhikov, General Director, 1C-Bitrix
Further more. In February, the president signed an amendment to the 13.11 of the CAO “Violation of the legislation of the Russian Federation in the field of personal data”. When the law enters into force on July 1, all lead forms will become dangerous, up to the simplest “Call us back.” The form is, and the data processing policy is not published? Fines: up to 6,000 rubles from the director, for individual entrepreneurs - up to 10,000 rubles, for organizations up to 30,000 rubles. In Astrakhan, they have already begun to penalize alphabetically.
Since January 1, 2017, the Federal Law No. 244-ФЗ dated July 3, 2016 “On Amendments to Parts One and Two of the Tax Code of the Russian Federation”, it "Google tax". It sets the 18% value added tax for foreign companies that provide paid electronic services in Russia. Who is it? Foreign online shopping: Amazon, Aliexpress, eBay. Advertising platforms: Google Adwords, Facebook, Youtube, Instagram. Hosting providers and cloud storage: Bluehost.com and Amazon S3 (hi backup). By way of marketplaces: Google Play, AppStore, Steam. And SaaS, in particular virtual telephony on foreign servers.
Russian individual entrepreneurs and legal entities are required by law to calculate and pay the tax themselves. Placed ads on Google Adwords - pay VAT from the commission. Paid cloud on Amazon - give VAT on rent. Sold the game on Steam - transfer 18% from the reward area.
On March 9, 2017, the government approved the bill of Rospotrebnadzor, limiting the work of commodity aggregators ("Yandex.Market", "[email protected]"). When the new law begins to operate, the aggregators will have to bear financial responsibility along with the sellers who place goods on them. Return the prepayment from your funds if the goods are not accepted by the buyer or are not delivered on time. And to compensate losses to customers affected by inaccurate information about the product. The press service of Yandex.Market stated that the bill creates "a wide field for consumer abuse of their rights." On the contrary, the head of the marketplace Goods (“M.Video”) is sure that his platform fully complies with the requirements of the new law.
And the final chord: the provisions of the “Yarovoi package” come into force in a year, prescribing postal operators to carry out strict security checks on parcels. This means that carriers will need to acquire radioscopes, X-rays, metal detectors and gas detectors in order to identify weapons, drugs and bills. Carriers' tariffs may increase by 30-40%, and sales will fall accordingly, especially low-cost goods. Who would love it when shipping costs more than buying?
Drink-snack home delivery
In 2016, food retail chains conducted a cunning maneuver aimed at “exhausted with narzan”. X5 Retail Group, AUCHAN, Metro Cash & Carry, together with the associations of producers of alcohol (Committee of Alcohol Producers, Union of Winemakers of Russia) have developed a scheme for the sale of alcohol through the Internet. On the basis of this roadmap, a draft law on the sale of alcohol on the Internet is being developed in the Ministry of Industry and Trade. Allow trade will be only holders of licenses for the production and wholesale of alcohol. Small businesses have no chance here. A wholesale license is issued upon availability of premises of 100 square meters, plus the license itself costs 800 thousand rubles. It is assumed that the bill will be approved in 2017.
In the meantime, distant trade in alcohol is prohibited, alcohol shops are being prosecuted and closed by the court. Moreover, a bill is being considered under which they will be punished even for disseminating information about the distance selling of alcohol. Sites are supposed to be blocked out of court, and owners to be fined: from 30,000 rubles per director to 1 million per enterprise.
"It is important to understand that the online sale of alcohol will sharply spur Internet food trade, as it will make them much more profitable - food delivery, if alcohol is added to them, will be much cheaper"
Victor Evtukhov, Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade
A great motivator for dragging conservative audiences into online trading. The embodiment of the deepest national aspirations: "press the button - wine in any quantity." Buttons, applications for mobile phones and set-top boxes are already being developed, I think.
Second volley: squeezing prices
Federal chains are already selling 30–40% cheaper than regional retailers. In May 2016, the Union of Independent Networks of Russia (NDS), which unites regional retailers, appealed to the Prime Minister to legally prohibit dumping, but was not heard. The letter to the NDS states:
"In a crisis, expansion into the regions of the largest players in the retail market has intensified. Its main tool is dumping, selling goods at lower prices. The dumping policy implemented by the largest federal discount stores and hypermarkets is a scorched earth strategy aimed at destroying competitors. "Freed from the burden of space and personnel, large retail chains will lower retail prices much lower than the purchase prices of online stores and squeeze them out of the market.
How else will online shopping be ruined? Advertising campaigns, bidding on Yandex.Direct auctions, Google AdWords, Facebook. Now for the majority of online advertisers, the million ruble budget seems outrageous, and a surcharge of 300 thousand causes an epic squabble. Meanwhile, large retailers spend annually on advertising billions of rubles (“Magnet” - 5.3 billion in 2016). Даже десятой доли таких затрат мелкие игроки не потянут.
"Рынок почувствует, что такое "война бюджетов", демпинг, массовое банкротство игроков, когда Х5, "Магнит", "Дикси", "М.видео", "Эльдорадо" начнут тратить на онлайн-продвижение более трети своих маркетинговых бюджетов".
Алексей Федоров, президент Ассоциации компаний интернет-торговли
Сначала вылетят 1699 российских интернет-магазинов товаров для дома, выдавленные сетями METRO, IKEA, "Ашан". За ними последуют 1778 магазинов одежды и обуви, конкуренты Adidas, "Спортмастер" и "Центробувь". Потом разорятся 1508 магазинов стройматериалов, мешающие DIY-сетям "ОБИ", Leroy Merlin, Castorama. И так далее, по сочетанию уровня спроса, рыночной доли и политической воли советов директоров.
Media holdings against indirect competition
Direct competition is determined by the coincidence of the range, price range, place and time. With remote consumption, the significance of the distance is reset to zero, and its role moves to time. Indirect competitors from different niches are becoming direct competitors for the attention of the viewer. Television discovered this truth in the 40s of the 20th century, and the Internet learned from Google Panda in 2011, faced with the need to increase the duration of the session.
Rejecting the model of the vending machine in favor of the game interface (virtual shopping center), retailers will claim all the time and all the attention of all potential buyers. All resources and Internet channels will be divided into useful and harmful. Visited services, media, publications and authors will become channels of attraction, or disappear.
First of all, the attention of retailers will turn to the gaming market. Games of small studios and indie will be ousted from the market by increasing commissions of marketplaces and advertising tariffs. Portals of free games (Vseigru.net, Flashgames.ru) will be bought and closed. Major game developers and publishers will enter into alliances with retail chains, conclude long-term advertising contracts, and partially brand franchises.
Further, retailers will expand the front of the competition to the entertainment market in general. Corporate codes and marketing plans for retail chains will determine the policy of film studios, producer centers and publishing houses with sponsorship, advertising contracts and lobbying. In addition to state censorship, several private, contradictory ones will be established.
Now we giggle at the ignorance of petty baryg, rushing to order their own social networks for the monthly salary of a programmer. Tomorrow major players will come to the Internet, and brand Vkontakte with Odnoklassniki at the root. That's when we laugh. When admins ban Ronald MacDonald for blasphemy, Zuckerberg’s censorship will seem like a fairy tale.
Major rightholders and retailers will join forces in the fight against pirated free content. A start has already been made. The Association of E-commerce Companies (ACIT) prepared the “Development Strategy for Electronic Trading in Russia for 2017–2018 and for the period until 2025” and won approval from the Ministry of Industry and Trade. One of the strategy points suggests pre-trial blocking of sites with counterfeit at the request of the right holders. Such an alliance of power and money has all the chances to finally solve the “piracy issue”. The states are ready for a long time: in Germany, downloading of pirated content is fined up to 1000 euros, and in the UK, since 2013, the anti-piracy police has operated the Police Intellectual Property Unit.
To solve these problems, the Internet will be divided between conglomerate media holdings like the Virgin Group and Gazprom-Media. Internet giants will not get leadership in these structures and will not play a leading role in them, because too clearly demonstrate a reluctance to cooperate. For example, in March 2017, Google suffered a massive boycott of advertisers. McDonald's, Channel 4, BBC, L'Oreal, AT & T, and others have removed their advertisements from Youtube, finding next to it nationalist, anti-Semitic and homophobic videos (hate group). And the service “Order on the Market” launched by Yandex at the end of 2016 provoked the departure from the site of Citylink, M.Video and other retailers. The new service made it possible for aggregator buyers to process and pay for goods without going to an online store website, which, of course, did not suit suppliers.
Media holdings will buy and absorb popular online shopping, games, media. As Wal-mart in August 2016, I bought Jet.com for 3.3 billion dollars. Ambitious owners will be offered mergers. Of course, companies from related industries more often merge. Dell and EMC merge hard and soft, Technosila and Eldorado absorb M. Video, and X5 Retail Group buys Spar Retail. However, the Virgin Group already owns the provider Virgin Connect, and Gazprom-Media owns the video hosting RuTube, film portal NOW.RU and Internet radio 101.RU. A start.
The most obvious way to control the information space is the manipulation of search results, as well as tapes of social networks. By virtue of this evidence, Google and Yandex, Facebook and Vkontakte will remain formally independent at first. However, the instructions and assignments of assessors and moderators will increasingly depend on advertising and sponsorship budgets. Such voluntarism can finally drive the self-learning search algorithms to mind. Spammed services will lose the audience, giving way to non-engaged competitors. Those in turn will be corrupt, and so on in a circle.
How the arrival of retail will change the Internet
To summarize The Internet remained independent until it was needed and did not pose a threat. Now large retail chains consider online sales a source of problems and at the same time a way out of the crisis. Therefore, they will force the Internet to serve itself, transforming it from a library into a trading system. The ways and consequences of this restructuring are determined by a combination of three main scenarios.
Scenario 1: Replacing Small Customers
24,000 online stores, 2999 web studios specializing in their production, and 162,000 small internet marketing studios will disappear from Runet. The market will jump from a plateau to a stage of extinction, a “bursting bubble”. The outflow of customers, the collapse of businesses, layoffs and cuts, panic will begin. Unclaimed developers (copywriters, designers, programmers) will rush to the freelance exchanges, fractional services (YouDo, Porucheno) and slightly raise the average level of quality. And tariffs, naturally, will shed.
With some difficulty, leaders of ratings with established reputation and connections will keep afloat. Lebedev Studio, Ashmanov and Partners, Aero and Artwell. Specialized agencies will, willy-nilly, have to master the full cycle. There will be mergers following the example of QSOFT and AIC.
Services reviews (Irecommend.ru, Otzovik) izvedut as a class. Lawsuits, complaints to the search engines, bribery and pressure on the owners. Negative publications about retailers will disappear from the surviving sites. Cleaners are ready and offer their services.
The demand for internet marketing for dummies will drop to zero. There will be no one to teach. Best practices, cases, books, articles are hidden from public access, under the terms of the NDA and not to help competitors. Download while you have something!
Against the backdrop of a take-off of tariffs for contextual advertising, a temporary growth in demand for promotion in organic delivery, social networks and instant messengers, and "native" advertising in regional media is possible. Having mastered the remnants of small budgets, such marketers will leave the market and join MLM.
With their rating model, copywriting exchanges will no longer provide low-paid copywriters with at least a living wage. Independent SEO copywriters and rewriters will make their way into the staff of internal corporate editorial offices by hook or by crook. Their life will be difficult, they will have to compete in the level of skill with experienced journalists of media holdings.
Only long and expensive online sales will survive. Almost all B2B: construction equipment, heavy vehicles, oil refining equipment, etc. Holdings supplying products by tankers and trains. From B2C builders, sellers of premium goods will not fall under dumping, as well as the services sector: realtors, lawyers, hairdressers, psychologists, tutors. However, the growth of advertising rates will not pass to anyone, and very few small companies will survive it.
Scenario 2: MLM Sales Outsourcing
It is there that unclaimed copywriters, marketers, designers, lawyers, accountants and their ilk will find themselves. Customs in this environment will be a wolf, about as it is now between private realtors. A typical MLM publication will be deceitful, built on non-existent advantages and unfulfilled promises. The soil has been prepared: copywriters now believe that cheating is when the customer does not pay for the work.
Relying on advertising and methodological support for retail, MLM networks will finally flood digital channels with lies. Spam is legalized because it will serve a good purpose. Why was the spam king Sanford Wallace planted? Because he is "not our bastard." Even a complete de-anonymization of the Internet will not correct the situation. Even on the contrary, it will give spammers additional credibility.
Buyers will have to choose between false messages, relying on luck. In the end, this is how we now select a job based on job texts. Sensational revelations will not save authenticity. Even if entire cities become extinct from fake vodka, a small subcontractor will be a switchman. And that will be punished with a grudge, if a competing holding does not suddenly need a sensation.Popular Internet channels will lose their credibility. The source of more or less reliable information will be personal dating.
Scenario 3: mods on game interfaces
The public interest of large market players in selling game interfaces will create a new fashion. It is likely that the implementation pioneers will not even be retail chains, but developers and leading realtors suffering from overproduction no less than retailers. And integrating long sales developers in the gameplay is much easier. Proof of this are the active experiments of real estate sellers with virtual reality.
Banks will gladly support. They run games for customers right now. For example, the quest "Promsvyazbank" "The hunt for gold" in 2016, an online business simulation "Himself a banker" of the bank "Home Credit" in 2017.
As a result, there will be a massive demand for the development of selling games, primarily mobile and online. In the budget segment, the demand for games will be met by indie developers and hastily repainted web studios. The vast majority of these implementations will not yield returns, which will only accelerate the displacement of small customers and performers from the market.
Accordingly, the demand for static formats will fall: longreads, articles, photo galleries. Even the video in some way. Non-interactive publications will no longer be considered a universal promotion tool and will become a means of supporting gaming franchises.
Game reviewers and commentators, novelizers will be in demand. There are still a lot of books based on games: the inter-author cycle of S.T.A.L.K.E.R. (187 books) based on STALKER games, inter-author cycle "Worlds of the Commonwealth. EVE Universe" (102 books) based on EVE online, Umbrella Corporation, City of Death, Code Veronica Stephanie Perry - based on Resident games Evil ". Fueled by retailers, this branch of literature will flourish.
Part of the gaming professions legalized. Following the League of Legends, there will be many professional leagues with cybersportsmen and coaches for salaries. Outstanding gamers after Jonathan "Fatal1ty" Wendell and Anton "Cooller" Singovom become stars. Individual stream (video broadcast of the game) will be actively sponsored. But pumping accounts and Persians will be prosecuted as fraud and unsportsmanlike behavior.
Relatives and friends have repeatedly asked the author: why are you writing this? Do you really want to live in such a future? I do not want to, but I have to. The speakers of the conference "Retail 2017: Future Horizons" expect by mid-2020 an avalanche-like transition to a new form of retail. And well, if this period is undervalued.
On this one could finish. But Maxim Ilyakhov does not order to scare the horror stories without useful advice. Well, here he is. Ambitious, full of energy and trained authors can find themselves in the game development teams. There is a lot of work for them.
Appendix 1: The role of a copywriter in game development
Alexey Kalinin, Executive Producer and Head of Wargaming Development, states: the success of the game is largely determined by the texts, plots, and dialogues created by game designers and script writers.
Description of the world (setting). Script writers invent a gaming universe. "Underwater part of the iceberg" by Hemingway. Invisible player structure and details on which the internal logic of the world and the player's path in it. Typical types of settings: cyberpunk, fantasy, post-apocalypse. A well-made setting draws the player into the stream and is closely tied to game mechanics.
The main story (narrative). Develop the main plot and sub-stories, from general to specific. A sophisticated, coherent and intriguing storyline supports and strengthens emotional involvement in the game. Seven classic plots of Christopher Booker and 36 dramatic plots of Georges Polti can be found in the article "In secret all over the world, or how to develop and launch a rumor." There are step-by-step instructions for constructing a game plot.
Characters The authors describe the characters of the characters, the history of their formation, driving impulses, reactions to events and interactions with people. Placing characters in critical situations, experiencing their defeats and victories, imagine them in battle and love. Introduce the characteristic "highlights" (phrases, gestures, addictions). Match the threads of personal stories of characters with the main story of the game. Associative methods help to create a whole inner world of the character (Tarot, network of characters). 13 steps of character development are described in the “Plot Architecture” and Alexey Astremsky’s book.
Quests and situations. Script writers are working on situations arising from different plot twists. Come up with quest scenarios, riddles and rewards for solving them. In multiplayer and role-playing games, the volume of such work is so great that it is done by special scriptwriters - quest technicians. Of the seven classic plots for quests, the fourth, detective story, is the most suitable. The classic "golden age of detective" Willard Huntington Wright (Steven Van Dyne) recommends "Twenty Rules for Writing Detectives."
Dialogues. The authors prescribe the dialogues of all the characters in the game on the replicas. Dialogues should be concise, emotional, cause interest in hints. At the same time, unlike the movie, the game combines many scenarios. Therefore, the game dialogues are designed according to the structure of the tree of variants, taking into account non-linear conditions. In Chapter VII of James Frey's book “How to write a genius novel”, it is shown how to make a vivid and expressive dialogue, to work out cues.
Design document (dizdok). The authors create and update three documents reflecting three levels of detail "from abstract to concrete." The concept document summarizes the idea of the game, Vision describes the game as a business product, Feature List describes the features that make up the game. Dizdok is designed as a wiki project on the engines Atlassian Confluence or MediaWiki. Step by step instructions on how to write dizdok.
Training toolkit (tutorial). Script writers write educational materials that allow new players to understand the rules of the game, master the controls, moves, tricks, and smoothly join the game. A good tutorial is integrated into the gameplay, then learning tasks are easily digested and enjoyable.
"What is great in games is that traditions here are not a set of narrow frames, but play the role of a springboard. Having taken the solid foundation of traditional writing skills as a basis, we will find ourselves in the most advantageous position to create completely new impressions that our audience, - any audience has not experienced it before. "
Marc Laidlaw, Half-Life Lead Scriptwriter
We must be aware that in most game projects the role of a script writer is official. It is not independent because it fulfills the tasks of the design documentation, and rewrites the finished texts at each iteration of the project. It does not define the type of product and game mechanics, it is the competence of producers and game designers. The results of the game screenwriter are dissolved in the body of the game and do not bring him laurels. Game writer is nothing more than a technical writer.
Appendix 2: game screenwriter toolkit
"Cinema between Hell and Heaven"
Techniques for the production of scenarios shown in the analysis of well-known films. Three acts, exposure, dramatic situation, conflict, peripeteia, climax, action-counteraction, antagonist-protagonist, theme-counter-theme, suspense, breach, barriers, proposed circumstances, alternative factor. The author is so meticulous that he is criticized for restricting creative freedom.
"Million Dollar Story"
Professional textoring textbook for screenwriters. David Bowie, Paul Haggis, William Goldman studied on it. The basics of the specialty: scene, frame, episode, act, ariset, mini-plot and antisubject. The presentation is available, with examples of films, explanatory diagrams and illustrations.
"Save the cat!
And other secrets of screenwriting "
Exhaustive manual for the organization of streamline production of scenarios. The author describes the universal structure of the script, moves and techniques, the mistakes of the writers. A technique for working out scenes using a screenwriter (table) resembling a kanban is given.
"Scenario: The Basics of Writing"
This book is considered to be the basic textbook of screenwriting in the United States. It lays and develops the three-act paradigm, the structure of the four points of the plot, the concept of "midpoint" (midpoint). CNN called this author "the guru of all the writers." The author worked as a special consultant for screenwriters 20th Century Fox, Disney Studios, Universal Pictures.
"The art of drama"
Увлекательное пособие для написания пьес на основе посылки, характера и конфликта. Уделяется внимание оркестровке характеров, видам и динамике конфликтов, экспозиции и источникам идей.
"Как хороший сценарий сделать великим"
Как и заявлено в названии, книга помогает усилить сырой, недоработанный сценарий по голливудским стандартам. Правки в сценарий предлагают продюсеры, режиссеры, актеры. Линда Сегер учит вносить доработки с пользой, чтобы улучшить, а не сгубить сценарий.
"Психология для сценаристов"
Изложение теорий психоанализа Зигмунда Фрейда, Эрика Эриксона, Карла Юнга, Джозефа Кэмпбелла, Альфреда Адлера и Ролло Мэя на примерах героев классических фильмов ("Звездные войны", "Все без ума от Мэри", "Красота по-американски").
Common script layouts for text editors
"Clerk" for Microsoft Word
The Scriptwriters' Toolkit for Microsoft Word
Pago for vim
Script formatting tools
Applications for formatting a Hollywood standard.
"KIT Scriptwriter" (freeware)
Celtx (free program)
Fade In (fully works with Russian texts, $ 50)
Final Draft (popular, $ 250)
Amazon Storywriter (cloud editor and converter)
WriterDuet (service for co-authorship work in real time)
Story-development / dramatic development
Programs for creating a script structure, characters. Based on Campbell, Snyder, Vogler, Shecher structures.
NIMS (free online Russian service for live-action role-playing games)
Ultraoutliner (free Russian-language program for creating the structure of history)
yWriter (free English "literary assistant")
Contour (shareware English program)
Scrivener (English-language program with interfaces for character characteristics, scenes, script development. $ 45)
Dramatica Pro (popular PC / Mac software, $ 130)
Programs for building associative maps. Used for visual presentation of characters, scenes, plot arches, hub locations.
FreeMind (popular free program)
XMind (popular program, from $ 79, there is a free version)
Coggle.it (free service)
Popplet (free service)
Programs for the development of branched dialogues
INSTEAD (free Russian program)
Inklewriter (free English speaking service)
Sites, blogs, publication cycles
"Creating worlds for dummies"
Translations of 23 articles by Michael Wenman. The construction of maps, nature, cultures, races, monsters, disasters and 17 more topics.
The blog of the computer games writer Maria Kochakova, the founder of the Royal Troupe studio and the Narratoric school of screenwriters. Lessons, materiel, interviews, predictions.
Video channel Alexander Molchanov
Youtube is a playwright, screenwriter and screenwriting teacher channel.
23 episodes of the cycle "Scenary Kitchen"
Team blog 10 of the developers of Wargaming.net and Plarium. Tips for screenwriters, game designers and programmers, translations. Materials on the monetization of games.
Blog Yaroslav Kravtsov
The author is a game designer with 10 years of experience, he worked at G5 Entertaiment AB and Allods Team. Publications about narrative, level design, game math.
Blog Oleg Yakubenkova
The author is an analyst for Workplace by Facebook. He led a group of analysts geoservices Yandex. Publications about marketing and analytics of games, reviews, behavioral economics.
Magazine, library and forum of the oldest community of game developers in RuNet. Works since 2001.
Library and archive dedicated to role-playing games. Effective since 2009.
Europe’s largest IT community, operating since 2006. In the "game development" section there are 2720 publications and 103000 subscribers.
Site and community of gamers, developers and cybersportsmen. Exists since 2001.